CONTENTS LETTER FROM THE EDITOR 3 GLOBAL EVENTS 8 FREIGHT 12 INTERPRETING INDEXES 13 STEEL: Carbon and Stainless 17 NON-FERROUS METALS 19 PLASTICS AND RESINS 22 PULP AND PAPER 22 LUMBER 23 CURRENCIES 26 ENERGY: Oil and Natural Gas 30 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 33 CONSTRUCTION 34 AUTOMOTIVE 35 MANUFACTURING PMI 39 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 42 INFLATION INDICATORS 47 ADDITIONAL MARKET INDICATORS We have an action-packed version this month, with a deep dive on the ocean freight market, some forward looking analysis on global growth expectations, and more than a few current events, including regulatory changes for imports/exports, trouble with trains, and more. Primary indicators of inflation softened modestly and in-line with expectations, with consumer prices dropping to ‘only’ 6%, down from almost double-digit levels, but still well above its historical average and the target Fed level. Producer prices, those that reflect transaction prices between manufacturers and distributors/wholesalers, hit 4.6%, but varied widely across sub- categories (see page 44 for specifics). Industrial production remained flat sequentially but was slightly lower than its year earlier level. Employment levels dipped modestly from record lows, but overall jobs added in the US outpaced forecast and the environment remains healthy, a potential indication of continued strong consumer spending. Below are some top market barometers we are tracking today: • ISM US PMI moderated to 47.7%, • Markit US PMI tempered to 47.3% • US Industrial Production down 0.2% y/y • CPI advanced 6% y/y • PPI advanced 4.6% y/y • US Q4 GDP was 2.7% in the second estimate • Fed rates remain at 4.5% - 4.75% • Retail sales up 5.4% y/y Best Regards, Justin Robarge Director of Trade Compliance Any forward-looking statements contained in the Fastenal Market Update are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements reflect the Fastenal’s best judgment based on factors currently known and are val id only on the statement date of release. Fastenal is under no obligation to provide updated statements in response to changing market conditions. GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE 2
Download PDF file